Challenges to Nuclear Arms Control in the Post Cold War Era: Geopolitics, non-compliance, and treaty erosion

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, nuclear arms control has shifted from a relatively stable, bipolar framework centered on U.S.–Soviet/Russian bilateral treaties to a far more contested and fragmented landscape. This paper examines the principal challenges to nuclear arms control in the post Cold War era, focusing on three interrelated dimensions: the impact of changing geopolitics on cooperation, patterns of non compliance and contested verification, and the erosion or stagnation of key treaties and regimes. Drawing on policy analyses, official documents, and scholarly literature, the study traces developments from the early 1990s–characterized by deep reductions and institutional expansion–to the 2010s and 2020s, which have seen withdrawals from the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) and Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaties, uncertainty over the future of the New START Treaty, and rising tensions within the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review process. The paper argues that geopolitical competition among major powers, unresolved regional conflicts, persistent compliance crises, and emerging technologies have undermined confidence in arms control, while normative divisions over disarmament have complicated efforts to renew and adapt existing regimes. It concludes that sustaining nuclear arms control in the coming decades will require reconciling deterrence and disarmament perspectives, revitalizing verification and compliance mechanisms, and developing more inclusive, flexible frameworks suited to a multipolar nuclear order.